Market Update June - What the Latest Data Really Tells Us
Headlines around UK house prices have been grabbing attention recently, with some claiming the biggest drop in over two years. The Guardian, for example, led with "House prices fall by the most in more than two years." This buzz has largely stemmed from Nationwide’s latest House Price Index, which reported a 0.8% month-on-month fall in June 2025.
But is this a sign of a falling market, or just another blip in a complex landscape? Let’s take a closer look.
What the Key Property Indexes Are Saying
To understand the bigger picture, it's helpful to compare the major house price indexes:
- Nationwide: Reported a 0.8% fall in June.
- Halifax: Reported flat growth for the same period.
- Rightmove: Tracks asking prices rather than sold prices; reported a 0.3% drop.
- Land Registry: Reported a 2.7% drop in April (the latest data they have due to reporting lag).
Why the Land Registry’s Drop May Be Misleading
The Land Registry's 2.7% drop from March to April may seem significant at first glance. However, this likely reflects the stamp duty deadline at the end of March, which caused a rush of higher-value property completions before the cut-off. In fact, many buyers of more expensive homes pushed hard to close their sales before the deadline, temporarily inflating March’s figures and making April look artificially low.
In our own business, for example, completions in March doubled compared to the norm—clearly skewing the data.
A Look at Lagging Indicators
Another thing to keep in mind is that Land Registry data is based on completed sales, not when the sale was agreed. With the average property transaction taking 18 to 20 weeks to complete, April’s data is really reflecting deals agreed as far back as December 2024.
And December is traditionally one of the quietest months in the property calendar. Fewer sales are agreed, and those that are tend to be lower-value homes. That naturally drags down the average when completions finally happen several months later.
Regional Differences Matter
One crucial point that headlines often ignore: house prices vary significantly by region. Nationwide, Halifax, and the Land Registry all publish national averages—but the picture looks very different on the ground.
Even Rightmove acknowledged in their recent report that the biggest drops are being seen in higher-priced southern regions, while areas in the North are holding strong.
That’s certainly consistent with what we’re seeing locally. According to TwentyEA, which tracks real sales data, the average sale price in our region rose from £228,000 (Jan–June 2024) to £240,000 (Jan–June 2025). That’s a 5% year-on-year increase—real growth, not speculation.
Market Outlook: Positive Signs Ahead
Looking ahead, there are encouraging signs for both buyers and sellers:
- More listings are coming onto the market, which gives buyers more choice.
- Sellers are having to be more realistic on pricing, leading to healthier competition.
- First-time buyers are especially active this year, injecting fresh demand.
- Mortgage rates remain stable and competitive, supporting affordability.
Final Thoughts: Don’t Just Follow the Headlines
While the national headlines might spark alarm, it’s important to look beyond the surface. Yes, some indexes are reporting minor month-on-month drops, but when you dig into the regional data, the overall picture is far more stable—especially in more affordable areas like the North.
As always, we’ll continue to monitor the data and provide honest, up-to-date insights into what’s really happening in the property market.
